Main Article Content
Abstract
Abstract: The Significance of Determining the 2024 Indonesian Presidential Candidates on Stock Trading Volume
Purpose: examining the effect of the announcement of Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo as presidential candidates on the level of Abnormal Return and trading volume activity of stocks listed in the LQ-45 Index on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX).
Method: Using a quantitative event study methodology with secondary sources data
Results: The results showed that there was no statistically significant difference in Abnormal Return before and after the announcement event of the two presidential candidates.
Novelty: this research seeks to explain the above phenomenon, with an observation period of 14 days.
Contribution: this research could be used by investors in investment strategy regarding stock
Abstrak: Signifikansi Penentuan Calon Presiden Indonesia 2024 Terhadap Volume Perdagangan Saham
Tujuan: menguji pengaruh pengumuman Anies Baswedan dan Ganjar Pranowo sebagai calon presiden terhadap tingkat Abnormal Return dan aktivitas volume perdagangan saham-saham yang terdaftar dalam Indeks LQ-45 di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI).
Metode: Menggunakan metodologi event study kuantitatif dengan sumber data sekunder
Hasil: Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa tidak terdapat perbedaan Abnormal Return yang signifikan secara statistik sebelum dan sesudah acara pengumuman kedua calon presiden.
Kebaruan: Penelitian ini berupaya menjelaskan fenomena di atas, dengan periode pengamatan selama 14 hari.
Kontribusi: penelitian ini dapat digunakan oleh investor dalam strategi investasi di bidang saham.
Article Details
Copyright (c) 2024 Shobiro Elsa Safira, Kurnia Ekasari, Edi Winarto
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
References
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- Qin Jing C, Chee R, Chia J. Labuan Bulletin of International Business &Finance Systematic Literature Review On Election And Stock Performance n.d.;21:2600–7894.
- Wong WK, McAleer M. Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets. Math Comput Simul 2009;79:3267–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2009.05.007.
- Shaikh I. The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock, FX and VIX markets. North Am J Econ Financ 2017;42:546–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2017.08.014.
- Blanchard O, Collins CG, Jahan-Parvar MR, Pellet T, Wilson BA. A year of rising dangerously? The U.S. stock market performance in the aftermath of the presidential election. J Policy Model 2018;40:489–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.03.004.
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- Białkowski J, Gottschalk K, Wisniewski TP. Stock market volatility around national elections. J Bank Financ 2008;32:1941–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.021.
- Muth JF. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements. Econometrica 1961;29:315–35.
- Kahneman BYD, Tversky A. Kahneman2013. World Sci Handb Financ Econ Ser 1979;47:263–91.
- Fama EF. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. J Finance 1970;25:383–417. https://doi.org/http://www.jstor.org/stable/2325486.
- Halim A. Analisis Investasi. Jakarta: Salemba Empat; 2005.
- Supomo I, Bambang. Metodologi Penelitian Bisnis Untuk Akuntansi & Bisnis. Yogyakarta: BPFE; 2016.
- Fathurakhman T. Analisis Trading Volume Activity Dan Average Abnormal Return Sebelum Dan Sesudah Melakukan Pemecahan Saham (Stock Split) Pada Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. J Ilm Mhs Fak Ekon Dan Bisnis 2020;8:164. https://doi.org/10.30659/ekobis.18.2.164-173.
- Jogiyanto H. Studi Peristiwa: Menguji Reaksi Pasar Modal Akibat Suatu Peristiwa. Yogyakarta: BPFE; 2018.
- Binekasri R. Reaksi Investor Pasca Anies & Ganjar Sah Capres RI 2024 2024.
- Hartono S, Fajri RN. The Effect Of The 17th April 2019 Election On Stock Prices On The Indonesia Stock Exchange. Int J Econ Bus Accoun 2020;4:1379–88.
- Raya CJ, Paramita R. S. Analisis Perbedaan Abnormal Return dan Cumulative Abnormal Return Emiten Sektor Keuangan Sekitar Pemilu 17 April 2019. J Ilmu Manaj 2020;8:852. https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v8n3.p852-863.
- Apriyanto J, Mulyantini S, Nurmatias N. Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat Tahun 2020. JIMFE (Jurnal Ilm Manaj Fak Ekon 2021;7:189–202. https://doi.org/10.34203/jimfe.v7i2.3714.
References
Savita, Ramesh A. Return Volatility Around National Elections: Evidence from India. Procedia - Soc Behav Sci 2015;189:163–8. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.sbspro.2015.03.210.
Buigut S, Masinde B. The Impact of General Elections on Kenya’s Tourism, Financial and Media Sector Stock Returns: An Event Study Approach. J African Bus 2022;23:497–515. https://doi.org/10.1080/15228916.2021.1874793.
Qin Jing C, Chee R, Chia J. Labuan Bulletin of International Business &Finance Systematic Literature Review On Election And Stock Performance n.d.;21:2600–7894.
Wong WK, McAleer M. Mapping the Presidential Election Cycle in US stock markets. Math Comput Simul 2009;79:3267–77. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matcom.2009.05.007.
Shaikh I. The 2016 U.S. presidential election and the Stock, FX and VIX markets. North Am J Econ Financ 2017;42:546–63. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.najef.2017.08.014.
Blanchard O, Collins CG, Jahan-Parvar MR, Pellet T, Wilson BA. A year of rising dangerously? The U.S. stock market performance in the aftermath of the presidential election. J Policy Model 2018;40:489–502. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpolmod.2018.03.004.
Smales LA. Political uncertainty and financial market uncertainty in an Australian context. J Int Financ Mark Institutions Money 2014;32:415–35. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.intfin.2014.07.002.
Musah G, Domeher D, Musah A. Presidential elections and stock return volatility: evidence from selected sub-Saharan African stock markets. J Financ Econ Policy 2023;15:248–62. https://doi.org/10.1108/JFEP-02-2023-0033.
Białkowski J, Gottschalk K, Wisniewski TP. Stock market volatility around national elections. J Bank Financ 2008;32:1941–53. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2007.12.021.
Muth JF. Rational Expectations and the Theory of Price Movements. Econometrica 1961;29:315–35.
Kahneman BYD, Tversky A. Kahneman2013. World Sci Handb Financ Econ Ser 1979;47:263–91.
Fama EF. Efficient Capital Markets: A Review of Theory and Empirical Work. J Finance 1970;25:383–417. https://doi.org/http://www.jstor.org/stable/2325486.
Halim A. Analisis Investasi. Jakarta: Salemba Empat; 2005.
Supomo I, Bambang. Metodologi Penelitian Bisnis Untuk Akuntansi & Bisnis. Yogyakarta: BPFE; 2016.
Fathurakhman T. Analisis Trading Volume Activity Dan Average Abnormal Return Sebelum Dan Sesudah Melakukan Pemecahan Saham (Stock Split) Pada Perusahaan Yang Terdaftar Di Bursa Efek Indonesia. J Ilm Mhs Fak Ekon Dan Bisnis 2020;8:164. https://doi.org/10.30659/ekobis.18.2.164-173.
Jogiyanto H. Studi Peristiwa: Menguji Reaksi Pasar Modal Akibat Suatu Peristiwa. Yogyakarta: BPFE; 2018.
Binekasri R. Reaksi Investor Pasca Anies & Ganjar Sah Capres RI 2024 2024.
Hartono S, Fajri RN. The Effect Of The 17th April 2019 Election On Stock Prices On The Indonesia Stock Exchange. Int J Econ Bus Accoun 2020;4:1379–88.
Raya CJ, Paramita R. S. Analisis Perbedaan Abnormal Return dan Cumulative Abnormal Return Emiten Sektor Keuangan Sekitar Pemilu 17 April 2019. J Ilmu Manaj 2020;8:852. https://doi.org/10.26740/jim.v8n3.p852-863.
Apriyanto J, Mulyantini S, Nurmatias N. Reaksi Pasar Modal Indonesia Terhadap Pemilihan Presiden Amerika Serikat Tahun 2020. JIMFE (Jurnal Ilm Manaj Fak Ekon 2021;7:189–202. https://doi.org/10.34203/jimfe.v7i2.3714.